Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 3501 · GRR → EWR
departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GRR that day
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.35 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.