Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4515 · DCA → HHH
departs 8:39 AM ET · arrives 10:37 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 14%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Arrivals into HHH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HHH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.