Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2215
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
F9 2215 · SJU → TPA
departs 5:22 PM AT · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 36%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.57 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.