Schedule: FAA flight plans.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3216 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AA 3216 · MIA → BWI

took off 8:47 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 8:23 PM ET → 11:16 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3216 · MIA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?