Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
F9 1616 · MSP → MCO
departs 10:47 AM CT · arrives 3:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 24%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±0 pts
+31 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
37%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.38 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.