Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 1616 · MSP → MCO
departs 10:49 AM CT · arrives 3:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±7 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.