Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 1616 · MSP → MCO
departs 10:47 AM CT · arrives 3:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28 26%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.