Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1577 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 1577 · MIA → CLT

departs 6:58 PM ET · arrives 9:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.16 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1577 · MIA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?