AA 1869 · MIA → GYE

took off 7:27 PM ET · landed 10:16 PM -05 (scheduled 7:21 PM ET → 11:06 PM -05)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to GYE?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into GYE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.16 in

GYE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1869 · MIA → GYE

Odds over time

How late did it get to GYE?