YX 4636 · DCA → LGA

departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:21 PM ET

Your aircraft is N428YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4595 from SAV: landed 5:42 PM ET.

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4636 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?