Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4636 · DCA → LGA
departs 6:48 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 42%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.