Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
YX 4636 · DCA → LGA
departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.