DL 2309 · MSP → MCO

left the gate 7:55 PM CT · taxiing (scheduled 7:45 PM CT → 11:58 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N303DN (A321).

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

94% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2309 · MSP → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?