Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2309 · MSP → MCO
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 20%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.