Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Nov 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1886
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, November 11 Yesterday
DL 1886 · SNA → SLC
departs 1:22 PM PT · arrives 4:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 11/11
Today 22%
Fri 11/13 28%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SLC (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.