Today: WN 4421 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–58%.

Safest bet today WN 4421 OAK 06:50 → ONT 08:10 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3659 SFO 19:11 → LAX 20:37 · 58% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4421 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:50	ONT 08:10	2%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 4879 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:00	ONT 07:20	2%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 3534 Southwest	SJC 06:36	ONT 08:04	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3204 Southwest	OAK 07:06	SNA 08:37	3%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 685 Southwest	SFO 06:26	BUR 07:51	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3053 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:05	LAX 07:35	3%	1%	0.2%	55%
WN 4933 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	LGB 07:50	4%	1%	0.2%	98%
WN 4843 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:35	BUR 07:45	4%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 1098 Southwest	SJC 07:16	LGB 08:42	4%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3635 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 06:50	BUR 08:10	5%	1%	0.5%	45%
WN 554 Southwest	SJC 07:56	BUR 09:17	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 558 Southwest	OAK 06:15	BUR 07:30	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3847 Southwest	SJC 07:31	SNA 09:00	5%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1325 Southwest	OAK 07:05	LGB 08:30	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2799 Southwest	OAK 07:35	SNA 09:05	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2061 Southwest	SJC 06:16	LAX 07:38	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 407 Southwest	SJC 06:30	LAX 07:55	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 2127 United Flight history →	SFO 06:00	LAX 07:39	6%	1%	0.2%	96%
WN 2738 Southwest	OAK 08:31	ONT 10:06	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3518 Southwest	OAK 06:41	LAX 08:09	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 739 Southwest	SFO 06:25	LAX 07:55	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3152 Southwest	OAK 07:26	BUR 08:52	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 642 Southwest	OAK 09:18	LGB 10:51	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2818 Southwest	OAK 08:14	SNA 09:45	7%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 3708 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 08:00	SNA 09:25	7%	3%	0.4%	96%
UA 1756 United Flight history →	SFO 07:12	BUR 08:41	8%	2%	0.2%	97%
WN 2590 Southwest	SJC 09:40	BUR 10:50	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:58	SNA 08:38	8%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 4317 Southwest	SFO 06:41	LAX 08:07	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
AS 3244 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:35	SNA 08:15	9%	3%	0.5%	93%
WN 3062 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:00	ONT 11:20	9%	2%	0.1%	96%
AA 6294 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 06:00	LAX 07:41	9%	2%	0.2%	89%
WN 650 Southwest	OAK 09:50	LGB 11:15	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
AS 1620 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:00	LAX 07:32	10%	1%	0.4%	94%
DL 1598 Delta Flight history →	SFO 07:00	LAX 08:30	10%	1%	0.2%	94%
WN 3329 Southwest	OAK 09:15	SNA 10:45	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
OO 5405 SkyWest	SFO 07:12	SNA 08:52	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 5236 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 07:15	SNA 09:02	10%	4%	0.5%	86%
WN 3153 Southwest	OAK 08:44	BUR 10:10	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1362 Delta	SJC 06:59	LAX 08:20	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3741 Southwest	SJC 11:36	LGB 13:02	11%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 1654 Delta Flight history →	SJC 07:00	LAX 08:26	11%	2%	0.2%	91%
WN 3874 Southwest	SJC 09:41	SNA 11:11	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 3797 Southwest	SJC 10:43	BUR 12:04	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3151 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:05	ONT 12:20	11%	3%	0.2%	88%
WN 3983 Southwest	SJC 09:40	SNA 11:05	11%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 1260 United Flight history →	SFO 06:52	LAX 08:22	12%	2%	0.2%	89%
WN 3207 Southwest	OAK 10:12	SNA 11:43	12%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 3661 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:10	BUR 12:20	13%	3%	0.5%	94%
WN 1240 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:15	SNA 11:45	13%	3%	0.3%	76%
WN 3176 Southwest	OAK 12:13	LGB 13:42	14%	3%	0.1%	no record
WN 3826 Southwest	SJC 12:21	ONT 13:50	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 1097 American Flight history →	SFO 06:55	LAX 08:24	14%	3%	0.2%	79%
UA 2363 United Flight history →	SFO 08:33	BUR 09:57	14%	4%	0.2%	84%
WN 1194 Southwest	SJC 11:58	BUR 13:19	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4097 Southwest	OAK 12:51	ONT 14:25	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest	OAK 10:50	LAX 12:15	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1855 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:00	BUR 11:10	14%	2%	0.6%	73%
WN 2497 Southwest	OAK 10:01	LAX 11:29	15%	3%	0.3%	no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:15	SNA 09:55	15%	4%	0.4%	79%
WN 3786 Southwest	SJC 09:57	LAX 11:19	15%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 4877 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:00	LAX 11:20	16%	3%	0.2%	91%
DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	SJC 11:33	LAX 12:55	16%	3%	0.2%	92%
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:55	LAX 11:20	16%	4%	0.1%	93%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	SJC 18:12	LAX 19:34	16%	8%	0.7%	93%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history →	SFO 09:20	LAX 10:53	16%	2%	0.2%	91%
WN 2230 Southwest	OAK 12:20	SNA 13:50	16%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 3788 Southwest	SJC 12:51	SNA 14:20	17%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 3633 Southwest	OAK 11:59	BUR 13:25	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	SJC 09:51	LAX 11:17	17%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 2950 Southwest	SJC 11:35	LAX 12:55	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3184 Southwest	OAK 12:01	LAX 13:28	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 2392 Southwest	OAK 12:40	LAX 14:05	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 09:08	LAX 10:48	18%	4%	0.2%	86%
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:41	LAX 13:02	18%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3844 Southwest	SJC 12:42	LAX 14:04	18%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3210 Southwest	OAK 12:47	SNA 14:24	18%	3%	0.3%	no record
OO 5763 SkyWest	SFO 08:38	SNA 10:18	18%	5%	0.4%	no record
AS 340 Alaska	SFO 07:27	LAX 08:53	19%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	SJC 18:18	LAX 19:40	19%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1156 Southwest	OAK 12:59	BUR 14:25	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3667 Southwest	SJC 21:06	SNA 22:36	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3976 Southwest	SFO 08:36	LAX 10:03	20%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 397 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:15	SNA 14:35	20%	4%	0.4%	92%worse than usual
WN 4005 Southwest	SJC 15:26	LGB 16:53	20%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 3714 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:35	SNA 22:00	20%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 1409 Southwest	OAK 14:41	LGB 16:10	21%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:50	BUR 13:00	21%	3%	0.6%	62%
WN 3684 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:00	LGB 16:15	21%	4%	0.1%	64%
UA 1457 United	SFO 08:50	LAX 10:18	21%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 1591 Southwest	SJC 13:45	SNA 15:15	21%	4%	0.4%	no record
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 08:30	LAX 10:07	21%	3%	0.5%	64%
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:28	SNA 11:11	22%	8%	0.3%	67%
WN 4312 Southwest	SFO 12:31	BUR 13:57	22%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 3211 Southwest	OAK 20:57	SNA 22:34	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3852 Southwest	SJC 20:11	SNA 21:41	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4953 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:40	SNA 22:15	23%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 3471 Southwest	SJC 14:17	BUR 15:38	23%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3823 Southwest	SJC 19:46	LGB 21:13	24%	8%	0.4%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:25	LAX 22:00	24%	11%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
WN 1670 Southwest	SJC 20:51	BUR 22:13	24%	14%	0.7%	no record
OO 6274 SkyWest	SFO 09:25	LAX 10:56	24%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 1341 Southwest	SJC 15:21	ONT 16:50	24%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4931 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:40	BUR 14:45	24%	6%	0.5%	67%
WN 447 Southwest	SJC 19:40	SNA 21:05	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 589 United Flight history →	SFO 19:10	SNA 20:55	24%	9%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
WN 1284 Southwest	SJC 17:37	BUR 18:59	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 3787 Southwest	SJC 14:26	LAX 15:48	25%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2115 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	BUR 11:49	25%	6%	0.2%	81%
UA 2661 United Flight history →	SFO 10:40	ONT 12:12	25%	7%	0.2%	78%
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:55	BUR 17:05	25%	6%	0.7%	65%
F9 2678 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 09:33	ONT 11:07	25%	8%	1.1%	58%
WN 920 Southwest	OAK 18:42	LGB 20:11	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4907 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:55	LGB 20:15	26%	7%	0.4%	79%
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:09	LAX 11:49	26%	6%	0.2%	59%
WN 3013 Southwest	OAK 16:35	LGB 18:00	26%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 2367 United Flight history →	SFO 10:32	LAX 12:10	26%	4%	0.2%	78%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	LAX 15:19	26%	8%	0.2%	44%
WN 3087 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:05	SNA 16:35	26%	4%	0.3%	76%
WN 3638 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 12:50	BUR 14:10	26%	6%	0.5%	39%
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 08:48	LAX 10:21	26%	5%	0.6%	70%
OO 5571 SkyWest	SFO 13:58	ONT 15:46	26%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 3964 Southwest	OAK 16:06	BUR 17:33	26%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1164 United Flight history →	SFO 10:38	LAX 12:16	27%	4%	0.2%	75%
WN 3057 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:55	LGB 20:20	27%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 4350 Southwest	SJC 17:52	SNA 19:22	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:40	LAX 13:20	28%	7%	0.2%	52%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history →	SFO 11:45	LAX 13:17	28%	4%	0.2%	60%
UA 1506 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	LAX 13:55	28%	6%	0.2%	71%
UA 2610 United Flight history →	SFO 13:55	LAX 15:35	28%	6%	0.2%	78%
UA 643 United Flight history →	SFO 10:23	SNA 12:06	28%	7%	0.2%	82%
AA 1022 American	SFO 13:41	LAX 15:14	28%	9%	0.2%	no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:39	SNA 17:19	28%	8%	0.5%	71%
WN 1884 Southwest	SJC 22:19	LAX 23:42	28%	8%	0.5%	no record
AS 3465 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:48	SNA 22:28	28%	6%	0.8%	79%
AS 3464 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:52	SNA 22:30	28%	6%	0.8%	75%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	29%	6%	0.1%	92%worse than usual
WN 4957 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 10:10	LAX 11:40	30%	3%	0.2%	41%
DL 689 Delta	SFO 14:28	LAX 15:53	30%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 571 United Flight history →	SFO 12:00	SNA 13:45	30%	10%	0.2%	70%
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 15:48	SNA 17:26	30%	7%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
DL 2197 Delta Flight history →	SFO 20:42	LAX 22:09	30%	10%	0.7%	71%
UA 2478 United	SFO 18:53	ONT 20:31	30%	13%	0.5%	no record
WN 1198 Southwest	SJC 21:26	ONT 22:54	30%	15%	0.5%	no record
UA 2179 United Flight history →	SFO 22:37	LAX 00:19	30%	9%	0.5%	72%
UA 2441 United Flight history →	SFO 12:31	SNA 14:21	31%	9%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
DL 2112 Delta	SFO 12:07	LAX 13:34	31%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 2952 Southwest	SJC 16:05	LAX 17:25	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:04	LAX 17:45	31%	9%	0.2%	47%
UA 626 United Flight history →	SFO 13:50	BUR 15:17	31%	8%	0.2%	69%
WN 1538 Southwest	SJC 15:05	SNA 16:25	31%	4%	0.3%	no record
OO 3048 SkyWest	SFO 10:31	SNA 12:11	31%	8%	0.5%	no record
OO 249 SkyWest	SFO 10:19	LAX 11:50	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
DL 2725 Delta Flight history →	SFO 14:30	LAX 15:56	31%	7%	0.2%	49%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history →	SFO 16:39	LAX 18:13	31%	9%	0.2%	53%
WN 3851 Southwest	SJC 16:25	SNA 17:54	31%	6%	0.3%	no record
WN 2967 Southwest	SJC 16:12	BUR 17:34	31%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 794 United	SFO 20:47	BUR 22:19	31%	14%	0.6%	no record
UA 2001 United	SFO 18:02	BUR 19:29	32%	12%	0.5%	no record
OO 6277 SkyWest	SFO 11:50	LAX 13:21	32%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4977 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:55	BUR 18:10	32%	8%	0.7%	65%
UA 552 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	ONT 22:37	33%	13%	0.5%	83%worse than usual
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 16:30	LAX 17:56	33%	6%	0.1%	93%worse than usual
DL 2114 Delta	SFO 16:57	LAX 18:24	33%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 3239 Southwest	OAK 17:21	ONT 18:56	33%	8%	0.2%	no record
AS 753 Alaska	SFO 13:25	LAX 14:51	33%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:39	SNA 15:31	33%	7%	0.5%	80%worse than usual
AS 560 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:37	SNA 12:16	33%	7%	0.6%	40%
WN 3713 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 16:45	SNA 18:05	33%	6%	0.3%	58%
AS 1602 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:15	LAX 11:44	33%	4%	0.4%	27%
WN 393 Southwest	OAK 18:55	SNA 20:25	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 614 Southwest	OAK 22:30	ONT 23:55	33%	11%	0.5%	no record
F9 4082 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 20:23	LAX 21:48	33%	11%	2.3%	75%
F9 2458 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 20:55	LAX 22:25	33%	10%	2.3%	83%worse than usual
UA 1427 United Flight history →	SFO 18:45	LAX 20:29	33%	9%	0.5%	83%worse than usual
UA 298 United Flight history →	SFO 19:45	LAX 21:29	33%	9%	0.5%	69%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history →	SFO 20:05	LAX 21:40	33%	9%	0.7%	67%
WN 3692 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:55	ONT 23:15	34%	15%	0.4%	45%
WN 3837 Southwest	SJC 17:56	LAX 19:18	34%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 3178 Southwest	OAK 18:47	SNA 20:19	34%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1585 Southwest	SJC 21:40	LAX 23:05	34%	9%	0.5%	no record
UA 1754 United Flight history →	SFO 16:25	LAX 18:05	35%	8%	0.2%	73%
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 16:21	LAX 17:47	35%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 3905 Southwest	SFO 11:56	LAX 13:22	35%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 278 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 14:10	LAX 15:40	35%	5%	0.2%	20%
WN 3209 Southwest	OAK 17:17	SNA 18:54	35%	5%	0.3%	no record
AS 1369 Alaska	SFO 10:21	LAX 11:47	35%	4%	0.4%	no record
OO 3210 SkyWest	SFO 11:34	SNA 13:14	35%	8%	0.5%	no record
AS 1604 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 13:51	LAX 15:22	35%	6%	0.5%	71%
AS 269 Alaska	SFO 17:04	SNA 18:29	35%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1799 United	SFO 18:56	LAX 20:36	35%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 1321 United Flight history →	SFO 17:54	BUR 19:20	35%	13%	0.5%	86%worse than usual
WN 2754 Southwest	OAK 17:40	SNA 19:10	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3663 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:55	BUR 20:05	35%	10%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
OO 5318 SkyWest	SFO 19:01	BUR 20:32	35%	13%	0.8%	no record
AS 3037 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:43	LAX 23:21	35%	11%	0.8%	27%
OO 6276 SkyWest	SFO 16:11	LAX 17:42	36%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 2282 United	SFO 17:54	LAX 19:32	36%	9%	0.5%	no record
DL 1629 Delta Flight history →	SFO 18:43	LAX 20:10	36%	10%	0.7%	64%
AS 3237 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:30	SNA 14:09	36%	9%	0.5%	12%
OO 5467 SkyWest	SFO 16:14	ONT 17:51	36%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3680 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:35	LAX 21:00	37%	10%	0.5%	38%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	SFO 20:32	BUR 21:59	37%	13%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 2404 Southwest	OAK 17:00	LAX 18:25	37%	9%	0.2%	no record
F9 2858 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 11:54	LAX 13:28	37%	9%	0.5%	69%
UA 5650 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:30	SNA 18:22	37%	7%	0.5%	72%
OO 5597 SkyWest	SFO 16:58	SNA 18:54	37%	7%	0.5%	no record
WN 3580 Southwest	SJC 20:54	LAX 22:16	37%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 3185 Southwest	OAK 20:56	ONT 22:31	37%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 2764 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	BUR 17:36	38%	11%	0.2%	56%
WN 2583 Southwest	SJC 16:45	ONT 18:05	38%	9%	0.2%	no record
AS 1523 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 16:30	LAX 18:06	38%	9%	0.4%	58%
WN 3648 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:35	LAX 23:25	38%	10%	0.4%	21%
WN 1816 Southwest	OAK 19:08	BUR 20:35	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3089 Southwest	OAK 18:35	ONT 19:55	39%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 1079 United	SFO 21:47	LAX 23:21	39%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 21:50	LAX 23:20	39%	9%	0.5%	50%
WN 3571 Southwest	SJC 20:20	BUR 21:35	39%	14%	0.7%	no record
UA 5613 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:17	ONT 17:54	39%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 3780 Southwest	SFO 15:51	LAX 17:17	40%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 2068 Southwest	OAK 21:46	LAX 23:13	41%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 3157 Southwest	OAK 18:13	BUR 19:40	41%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3167 Southwest	OAK 20:22	BUR 21:49	41%	10%	0.8%	no record
F9 1160 Frontier	SFO 17:59	ONT 19:38	41%	14%	1.3%	no record
AA 3247 American Flight history →	SFO 20:09	LAX 21:47	42%	10%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
F9 3582 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 14:19	SNA 16:01	43%	13%	1.1%	65%
WN 3812 Southwest	OAK 17:41	LAX 19:09	44%	10%	0.5%	no record
UA 2409 United Flight history →	SFO 19:46	LAX 21:17	44%	10%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
AA 2567 American Flight history →	SFO 20:11	LAX 21:49	44%	10%	0.6%	60%
WN 4228 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 18:05	BUR 19:25	44%	15%	1.0%	49%
AS 1457 Alaska	SFO 16:51	LAX 18:15	45%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 254 Southwest	OAK 20:05	LAX 21:40	46%	10%	0.5%	no record
AS 1412 Alaska	SFO 19:52	LAX 21:16	46%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 1843 Southwest	OAK 20:30	BUR 21:45	46%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 374 Southwest	OAK 18:25	BUR 19:35	46%	12%	0.7%	no record
AS 751 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 19:46	LAX 21:06	48%	10%	0.6%	27%
WN 3772 Southwest	SFO 18:46	BUR 20:12	48%	14%	1.2%	no record
WN 1079 Southwest	OAK 19:56	LAX 21:24	48%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 962 Southwest	SFO 21:28	LAX 22:55	50%	11%	0.4%	no record
WN 3645 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 19:10	LAX 20:40	56%	13%	0.4%	35%
WN 3659 Southwest	SFO 19:11	LAX 20:37	58%	13%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON