Today: WN 4070 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–42%.

Safest bet today WN 4070 MDW 08:50 → BWI 11:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 440 ORD 18:20 → BWI 21:26 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 19 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4070 Southwest	MDW 08:50	BWI 11:40	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2277 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	IAD 11:52	11%	3%	0.2%	92%
UA 1869 United Flight history →	ORD 10:59	IAD 14:04	11%	4%	0.2%	89%
WN 1582 Southwest	MDW 08:35	DCA 11:20	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 08:54	DCA 11:59	13%	3%	0.3%	79%
WN 814 Southwest	MDW 08:55	BWI 11:11	13%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:51	BWI 12:52	14%	3%	0.4%	78%
UA 1486 United	ORD 10:51	IAD 13:46	15%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 315 American	ORD 09:52	DCA 12:57	15%	3%	0.3%	no record
UA 1128 United	ORD 12:51	IAD 15:47	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 587 United Flight history →	ORD 14:57	IAD 18:01	16%	5%	0.2%	73%
UA 2218 United Flight history →	ORD 09:00	DCA 11:58	16%	4%	0.3%	72%
AA 2398 American Flight history →	ORD 09:42	DCA 12:44	16%	4%	0.3%	71%
YX 4758 Republic	ORD 14:31	BWI 17:42	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
YX 4638 Republic	ORD 10:45	DCA 13:59	17%	3%	0.3%	no record
AA 1200 American Flight history →	ORD 10:36	DCA 13:41	20%	4%	0.3%	61%
WN 1699 Southwest	MDW 12:56	BWI 15:54	20%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 1904 United	ORD 09:57	DCA 13:01	21%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 1381 United Flight history →	ORD 09:59	DCA 13:03	21%	4%	0.3%	86%
WN 2744 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 12:10	BWI 15:00	21%	4%	0.4%	73%
WN 2645 Southwest	MDW 14:11	DCA 17:11	21%	6%	0.4%	no record
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	22%	6%	0.2%	83%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	22%	6%	0.2%	56%
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 14:55	DCA 18:00	22%	5%	0.3%	74%
UA 2794 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	IAD 16:30	23%	5%	0.2%	76%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	23%	4%	0.3%	65%
UA 8153 United	ORD 11:07	BWI 14:17	24%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 1762 Southwest	MDW 09:40	DCA 12:00	24%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 3631 Southwest	MDW 12:01	DCA 15:01	24%	5%	0.4%	no record
AA 789 American	ORD 13:18	DCA 16:22	24%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2737 United	ORD 15:23	BWI 18:32	25%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	25%	6%	0.4%	66%
AA 1675 American Flight history →	ORD 13:20	DCA 16:25	25%	5%	0.4%	59%
WN 1294 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:35	DCA 14:25	25%	5%	0.4%	56%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	BWI 17:36	26%	8%	0.2%	69%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	26%	5%	0.3%	69%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:30	BWI 19:43	26%	6%	0.3%	61%
WN 324 Southwest	MDW 14:00	DCA 16:55	26%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:11	DCA 20:26	28%	7%	0.3%	70%
UA 675 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	BWI 00:28	28%	9%	1.0%	60%
AA 535 American	ORD 21:06	DCA 00:19	28%	12%	1.3%	no record
UA 304 United	ORD 20:11	IAD 23:10	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	ORD 18:09	IAD 21:18	29%	5%	0.3%	57%
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:20	DCA 19:29	30%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 2766 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAD 00:45	30%	6%	0.8%	69%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	30%	9%	1.2%	56%
WN 1088 Southwest	MDW 16:46	DCA 19:46	32%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 1922 United	ORD 21:42	IAD 00:36	33%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 220 United	ORD 20:09	BWI 23:18	33%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 514 American	ORD 17:53	DCA 20:58	33%	7%	0.3%	no record
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:19	DCA 20:27	33%	7%	0.3%	no record
AA 1787 American Flight history →	ORD 17:55	DCA 20:59	33%	8%	0.3%	55%
WN 4305 Southwest	MDW 20:12	DCA 23:11	33%	9%	1.0%	no record
WN 4496 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 20:10	DCA 23:05	34%	9%	1.0%	50%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:39	BWI 21:50	35%	6%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
WN 2849 Southwest	MDW 19:11	BWI 22:09	35%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 1157 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 17:05	DCA 19:55	35%	10%	0.4%	37%
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	36%	8%	0.3%	50%
WN 1107 Southwest	MDW 18:30	BWI 21:25	36%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 1557 United	ORD 17:51	BWI 20:52	37%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1588 Southwest	MDW 21:21	BWI 00:19	37%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 440 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BWI 21:26	42%	9%	0.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON