tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:43 am at Los Angeles area); 22 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 60 nonstops

Today: WN 2858 at 08:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–55%.

Safest bet today WN 2858 LGB 08:45 → DAL 13:48 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3326 SNA 10:45 → DFW 15:55 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time
Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 22 flights that already left today are not shown.
WN 2858 Southwest LGB 08:45 DAL 13:48 16% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2030 Southwest ONT 09:45 DAL 14:40 23% 3% 1.1% no record
F9 1406 Frontier Flight history → ONT 19:43 DFW 00:49 31% 23% 2.1% 79%worse than usual
AA 3006 American Flight history → ONT 23:59 DFW 05:00 33% 7% 1.3% 70%
WN 3291 Southwest ONT 12:00 DAL 17:04 33% 8% 1.0% no record
AA 1820 American Flight history → ONT 10:31 DFW 15:43 33% 15% 1.4% 76%
AA 2238 American Flight history → ONT 10:25 DFW 15:37 33% 15% 1.8% 81%worse than usual
WN 3682 Southwest BUR 13:35 DAL 18:40 33% 5% 0.6% no record
WN 4200 Southwest LGB 15:20 DAL 20:20 35% 9% 0.4% no record
WN 2478 Southwest LAX 09:30 DAL 14:38 35% 4% 0.5% no record
AA 2635 American Flight history → ONT 14:28 DFW 19:46 35% 15% 1.3% 73%
AA 2956 American Flight history → ONT 12:43 DFW 17:59 35% 15% 1.4% 71%
AA 2242 American Flight history → ONT 12:35 DFW 17:50 36% 15% 1.4% 75%worse than usual
AA 2596 American Flight history → SNA 08:46 DFW 13:56 37% 11% 2.4% 86%worse than usual
DL 420 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:53 DFW 23:59 37% 13% 0.4% 82%worse than usual
AA 1186 American Flight history → LAX 09:02 DFW 14:25 38% 9% 0.7% 67%
AA 1047 American Flight history → LAX 09:05 DFW 14:20 38% 9% 0.7% 65%
AA 1504 American Flight history → LAX 18:54 DFW 00:00 38% 16% 0.8% 80%worse than usual
AA 2372 American Flight history → SNA 08:46 DFW 14:00 38% 13% 2.4% 82%worse than usual
AA 2239 American Flight history → ONT 14:15 DFW 19:30 39% 18% 1.4% 57%
AA 1669 American Flight history → LAX 18:45 DFW 23:53 40% 17% 0.8% 67%
WN 2489 Southwest SNA 09:00 DAL 14:07 42% 8% 0.8% no record
AA 3136 American Flight history → LAX 23:48 DFW 05:01 42% 10% 1.2% 68%
AA 3218 American Flight history → LAX 10:30 DFW 15:53 43% 17% 0.8% 73%worse than usual
AA 1154 American LAX 10:51 DFW 16:06 45% 17% 1.0% no record
AA 2644 American Flight history → SNA 09:31 DFW 14:45 45% 19% 1.9% 86%worse than usual
AA 2680 American Flight history → SNA 10:25 DFW 15:39 46% 22% 1.9% 88%worse than usual
AA 1686 American Flight history → SNA 09:34 DFW 14:47 46% 20% 1.5% 88%worse than usual
DL 948 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:50 DFW 19:04 46% 14% 0.4% 86%worse than usual
AA 2732 American Flight history → LAX 17:45 DFW 23:03 47% 19% 1.0% 48%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:47 DFW 14:03 47% 11% 1.4% 75%worse than usual
AA 2114 American Flight history → SNA 10:28 DFW 15:38 47% 23% 1.5% 78%worse than usual
AA 1230 American Flight history → LAX 12:15 DFW 17:34 48% 17% 0.8% 71%worse than usual
AA 2024 American Flight history → LAX 17:50 DFW 23:03 48% 19% 1.0% 54%
AA 1241 American LAX 16:32 DFW 21:48 48% 14% 1.0% no record
AA 2668 American Flight history → SNA 18:39 DFW 23:46 48% 16% 1.5% 77%worse than usual
AA 1760 American LAX 12:12 DFW 17:27 49% 19% 0.9% no record
AA 3223 American Flight history → SNA 18:46 DFW 23:59 49% 17% 1.4% 83%worse than usual
WN 1374 Southwest LAX 15:25 DAL 20:35 50% 9% 0.3% no record
WN 849 Southwest LAX 14:05 DAL 19:13 50% 9% 0.4% no record
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history → LAX 16:12 DFW 21:26 50% 22% 1.2% 72%worse than usual
AA 2659 American Flight history → SNA 16:30 DFW 21:40 50% 20% 1.4% 80%worse than usual
WN 1312 Southwest SNA 12:25 DAL 17:25 51% 7% 0.6% no record
AA 1939 American SNA 11:49 DFW 17:03 51% 23% 1.4% no record
AA 2672 American Flight history → SNA 11:56 DFW 17:12 51% 21% 1.4% 84%worse than usual
AA 2688 American Flight history → SNA 16:34 DFW 21:49 51% 19% 1.4% 67%worse than usual
AA 1208 American Flight history → BUR 12:22 DFW 17:34 52% 19% 1.5% 73%worse than usual
AA 1617 American Flight history → BUR 12:57 DFW 18:22 52% 20% 1.5% 69%worse than usual
AA 9781 American LAX 13:13 DFW 18:09 54% 20% 0.8% no record
WN 4128 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:45 DAL 22:50 55% 11% 0.4% 80%worse than usual
AA 500 American LAX 14:03 DFW 19:24 55% 19% 0.8% no record
AA 2994 American Flight history → LAX 15:00 DFW 20:21 55% 19% 0.9% 63%worse than usual
AA 2041 American Flight history → LAX 13:53 DFW 19:14 55% 19% 0.8% 49%
AA 2669 American Flight history → SNA 12:55 DFW 18:14 55% 23% 1.4% 58%worse than usual
WN 2325 Southwest LAX 17:55 DAL 23:02 55% 11% 0.4% no record
AA 1657 American Flight history → LAX 15:19 DFW 20:38 56% 19% 0.9% 57%worse than usual
AA 2684 American Flight history → SNA 14:24 DFW 19:44 58% 23% 1.3% 78%worse than usual
AA 1933 American SNA 13:49 DFW 19:10 58% 23% 1.4% no record
AA 2465 American Flight history → SNA 14:38 DFW 19:57 60% 24% 1.3% 79%worse than usual
F9 3326 Frontier Flight history → SNA 10:45 DFW 15:55 60% 30% 1.9% 56%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON