tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at Orlando); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60% (calm day: 32%). Best bet: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 20:15, 5% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 648 Southwest MCO 21:56 SAT 23:53 58% 24% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 19:00 → BNA 20:05WN 4711 2h 31m Nashville BNA 22:36 → SAT 01:05 +1WN 713 7h 05m 89% 39%
AmericanDetails → MCO 18:26 → DFW 20:30AA 2385 2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 6h 32m 85% 33%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MCO 18:55 → MDW 20:50WN 2660 50m Chicago MDW 21:40 → SAT 00:25 +1WN 3229 6h 30m 41% 23%
DeltaDetails → MCO 19:55 → ATL 21:48DL 1497 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → SAT 00:20 +1DL 1508 5h 25m 43% 9%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 20:15 → HOU 21:45WN 4493 46m Houston HOU 22:31 → SAT 23:38WN 2779 4h 23m 10% 5%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON