Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:08 am at San Francisco); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Today: UA 2142 at 22:47 is the safest bet, 37% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–58%.

Safest bet today UA 2142 SFO 22:47 → SAN 00:36 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest F9 3382 SFO 16:12 → SAN 17:59 · 58% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2142 United Flight history →	SFO 22:47	SAN 00:36	37%	12%	0.6%	73%
UA 1389 United	SFO 22:54	SAN 00:50	37%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 1330 Alaska	SFO 16:43	SAN 18:23	38%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1863 United Flight history →	SFO 21:00	SAN 22:49	39%	11%	0.3%	79%worse than usual
UA 442 United	SFO 21:01	SAN 22:44	40%	12%	0.3%	no record
UA 1343 United Flight history →	SFO 19:00	SAN 20:53	40%	13%	0.3%	65%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	SFO 16:47	SAN 18:39	42%	11%	0.2%	59%
UA 1577 United Flight history →	SFO 19:06	SAN 21:04	42%	14%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
AS 3306 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 18:30	SAN 20:15	43%	14%	1.1%	48%
UA 1257 United Flight history →	SFO 12:21	SAN 14:08	43%	12%	0.2%	67%
AS 3479 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:52	SAN 13:39	44%	12%	0.7%	58%
WN 1973 Southwest	SFO 22:36	SAN 00:16	44%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3653 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 21:35	SAN 23:30	45%	15%	0.4%	23%
OO 939 SkyWest	SFO 12:04	SAN 13:48	45%	14%	0.7%	no record
AS 3482 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:21	SAN 15:05	45%	13%	0.7%	59%
AS 3490 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 11:43	SAN 13:27	45%	12%	0.7%	66%worse than usual
AS 3337 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:24	SAN 18:09	45%	11%	0.7%	59%
WN 4681 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 17:05	SAN 18:50	46%	14%	0.4%	9%
WN 1307 Southwest	SFO 18:06	SAN 19:47	46%	14%	0.4%	no record
UA 1668 United Flight history →	SFO 14:21	SAN 16:13	48%	14%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
WN 3525 Southwest Flight history →	SFO 12:25	SAN 14:00	49%	10%	0.4%	45%
WN 3560 Southwest	SFO 15:46	SAN 17:27	50%	15%	0.4%	no record
WN 1085 Southwest	SFO 16:51	SAN 18:32	52%	14%	0.4%	no record
F9 4306 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 22:23	SAN 00:04	54%	14%	2.3%	51%
WN 2851 Southwest	SFO 14:55	SAN 16:40	55%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 1962 Southwest	SFO 14:21	SAN 16:02	55%	14%	0.4%	no record
F9 3382 Frontier Flight history →	SFO 16:12	SAN 17:59	58%	17%	2.7%	47%
AS 2058 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SFO 18:42	SAN 20:21	68%	24%	4.8%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON