Today: AA 3446 at 10:28 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–46%.

Safest bet today AA 3446 BWI 10:28 → ORD 11:43 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 25 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 10:28	ORD 11:43	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 381 Southwest	DCA 10:01	MDW 10:32	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2201 United Flight history →	DCA 10:30	ORD 11:48	16%	4%	0.3%	91%
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:31	ORD 11:53	17%	4%	0.2%	92%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:18	ORD 11:25	17%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 489 American Flight history →	DCA 11:35	ORD 12:53	17%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:25	ORD 12:34	19%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 488 Southwest	DCA 12:00	MDW 13:00	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1505 Southwest	DCA 13:01	MDW 14:08	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 421 United	IAD 22:31	ORD 23:48	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 22:40	ORD 23:59	21%	6%	1.6%	75%
UA 704 United Flight history →	BWI 10:32	ORD 11:48	21%	4%	0.2%	90%worse than usual
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:29	ORD 12:36	21%	5%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
UA 374 United Flight history →	DCA 11:57	ORD 13:15	21%	4%	0.3%	85%
WN 473 Southwest	DCA 15:06	MDW 16:13	21%	4%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:08	ORD 15:17	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1738 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	ORD 23:31	22%	5%	0.7%	80%
WN 4479 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 15:10	MDW 16:15	22%	4%	0.6%	62%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DCA 15:57	ORD 17:29	22%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 2803 United	DCA 12:00	ORD 13:12	24%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:18	24%	4%	0.3%	76%
AA 2398 American Flight history →	DCA 14:27	ORD 15:51	24%	6%	0.6%	61%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BWI 20:13	ORD 21:44	24%	6%	0.6%	68%
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:28	ORD 23:39	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 1221 American	DCA 15:06	ORD 16:19	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:13	ORD 19:35	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2903 American Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORD 21:42	25%	8%	0.7%	77%
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	25%	7%	0.2%	81%
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:40	ORD 14:48	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 716 Southwest	BWI 15:21	MDW 16:33	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2852 Southwest	DCA 20:05	MDW 21:10	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 16:11	ORD 17:32	26%	6%	0.4%	74%
WN 655 Southwest	BWI 13:55	MDW 14:55	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1393 United Flight history →	IAD 15:39	ORD 17:02	26%	8%	0.2%	64%
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:18	26%	6%	0.3%	71%
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:18	ORD 11:32	26%	7%	1.1%	67%
WN 836 Southwest	DCA 18:36	MDW 19:44	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	28%	8%	0.3%	66%
AA 1630 American Flight history →	DCA 17:22	ORD 18:54	28%	9%	0.5%	64%
UA 249 United	BWI 12:06	ORD 13:17	28%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 488 American	DCA 20:26	ORD 21:36	28%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 5450 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DCA 20:00	ORD 21:35	29%	14%	1.0%	54%
WN 724 Southwest	BWI 19:21	MDW 20:33	30%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1703 United	IAD 15:44	ORD 16:47	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
OO 5194 SkyWest	IAD 10:11	ORD 10:56	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	33%	12%	0.5%	58%
WN 375 Southwest	BWI 19:35	MDW 20:40	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:19	ORD 19:28	33%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:06	ORD 21:16	33%	11%	0.4%	63%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	35%	11%	0.3%	50%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	35%	11%	0.5%	51%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:00	ORD 18:08	35%	9%	0.5%	61%
WN 370 Southwest	DCA 21:35	MDW 22:40	35%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 1508 Southwest	DCA 21:01	MDW 22:09	37%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 791 United Flight history →	BWI 18:38	ORD 20:02	37%	8%	0.4%	53%
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	40%	11%	0.2%	48%
UA 1223 United	BWI 19:07	ORD 20:16	42%	10%	0.3%	no record
WN 1073 Southwest	BWI 22:32	MDW 23:46	46%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2730 Southwest	BWI 22:40	MDW 23:45	46%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	46%	9%	0.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON