tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 81 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2905 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 2905 MDW 05:11 → LGA 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 556 MDW 17:15 → LGA 20:20 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time
Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
WN 2905 Southwest MDW 05:11 LGA 08:16 5% 1% 0.9% no record
DL 5741 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 06:00 JFK 09:24 5% 2% 0.6% 89%
UA 2295 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 EWR 09:12 6% 2% 0.8% 94%
WN 2801 Southwest Flight history → MDW 05:15 LGA 08:15 6% 1% 1.2% 93%
UA 563 United Flight history → ORD 07:10 EWR 10:30 6% 2% 0.7% 91%
YX 5662 Republic ORD 06:06 JFK 09:13 7% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 1027 United ORD 05:58 EWR 09:02 7% 3% 0.8% no record
DL 2767 Delta Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:09 7% 2% 0.8% 92%
AA 327 American Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:17 8% 3% 0.8% 91%
UA 2617 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 LGA 09:11 8% 3% 0.8% 89%
YX 4495 Republic ORD 07:42 JFK 10:49 8% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 2633 Delta Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:14 9% 3% 0.7% 77%
UA 1657 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 LGA 10:17 10% 4% 0.7% 82%
UA 2759 United Flight history → ORD 04:55 EWR 07:56 10% 3% 0.8% 47%
AA 2723 American Flight history → ORD 06:59 LGA 10:15 10% 3% 0.8% 79%
UA 2301 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 EWR 12:06 10% 4% 0.7% 78%
AA 3170 American Flight history → ORD 06:42 EWR 10:00 11% 3% 0.8% 81%
AA 4371 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 12:50 JFK 16:28 12% 4% 0.6% 71%
UA 1273 United ORD 07:51 EWR 11:01 12% 4% 0.7% no record
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 10:51 JFK 14:30 12% 3% 0.6% 85%
UA 2238 United ORD 09:25 EWR 12:40 12% 5% 0.7% no record
B6 1206 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 06:00 JFK 09:17 13% 3% 0.8% 81%
UA 759 United Flight history → ORD 20:07 EWR 23:39 13% 9% 0.8% 65%
WN 2038 Southwest Flight history → MDW 08:05 LGA 11:20 14% 2% 0.8% 96%worse than usual
AA 2079 American Flight history → ORD 08:00 LGA 11:19 14% 4% 0.8% 82%
UA 2092 United Flight history → ORD 08:00 LGA 11:17 15% 4% 0.7% 86%
B6 906 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 07:08 JFK 10:10 15% 3% 0.7% 88%
WN 2906 Southwest MDW 08:21 LGA 11:26 15% 2% 0.8% no record
UA 1856 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 EWR 14:17 15% 6% 0.7% 80%
UA 606 United Flight history → ORD 12:11 EWR 15:39 15% 7% 0.7% 78%
DL 2252 Delta Flight history → ORD 09:30 LGA 12:46 16% 4% 0.7% 90%
AA 2914 American ORD 08:11 LGA 11:21 16% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 1209 United Flight history → ORD 21:30 EWR 00:53 16% 6% 0.8% 68%
WN 147 Southwest MDW 09:29 LGA 12:34 18% 3% 0.8% no record
DL 1642 Delta ORD 09:32 LGA 12:37 19% 4% 0.7% no record
UA 709 United Flight history → ORD 09:00 LGA 12:23 19% 6% 0.7% 75%
WN 4044 Southwest Flight history → MDW 09:50 LGA 12:55 19% 3% 0.8% 75%
UA 669 United Flight history → ORD 10:03 LGA 13:26 20% 7% 0.7% 82%
AA 1691 American Flight history → ORD 10:13 EWR 13:43 20% 6% 0.8% 48%
UA 1258 United Flight history → ORD 09:25 LGA 12:40 20% 6% 0.7% 76%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → ORD 10:30 LGA 13:48 22% 6% 0.7% 72%
UA 2329 United Flight history → ORD 14:25 EWR 18:00 22% 10% 0.7% 75%
UA 485 United Flight history → ORD 16:31 EWR 20:04 23% 10% 0.7% 57%
UA 534 United Flight history → ORD 18:28 EWR 21:58 23% 10% 0.7% 58%
AA 2250 American Flight history → ORD 10:10 EWR 13:30 23% 6% 0.8% 64%
AA 3128 American Flight history → ORD 10:18 LGA 13:47 23% 8% 0.8% 71%
AA 2549 American Flight history → ORD 20:09 EWR 23:30 23% 10% 0.9% 45%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → ORD 11:30 LGA 15:00 24% 6% 0.7% 78%
UA 2171 United Flight history → ORD 15:57 EWR 19:33 25% 10% 0.8% 27%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → ORD 20:10 LGA 23:44 25% 9% 0.7% 58%
UA 1775 United Flight history → ORD 11:00 LGA 14:23 26% 8% 0.7% 69%
AA 388 American Flight history → ORD 10:20 LGA 13:34 26% 8% 0.8% 71%
AA 1421 American Flight history → ORD 16:30 JFK 20:04 26% 9% 0.8% 57%
B6 406 JetBlue Flight history → ORD 17:27 JFK 21:00 30% 9% 0.7% 80%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → ORD 19:05 LGA 22:34 30% 10% 0.7% 64%
AA 1936 American Flight history → ORD 13:10 EWR 16:30 30% 9% 0.8% 65%
AA 2059 American Flight history → ORD 11:00 LGA 14:19 31% 9% 0.8% 73%
UA 2267 United Flight history → ORD 12:00 LGA 15:23 33% 9% 0.7% 69%
DL 2239 Delta Flight history → ORD 14:28 LGA 17:50 33% 10% 0.7% 63%
UA 1655 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 LGA 23:15 33% 10% 0.7% 50%
AA 679 American Flight history → ORD 19:59 LGA 23:21 34% 10% 0.8% 63%
DL 2336 Delta Flight history → ORD 17:35 LGA 21:00 37% 11% 0.7% 51%
AA 3253 American Flight history → ORD 17:36 EWR 21:00 37% 12% 0.9% 47%
UA 2189 United Flight history → ORD 13:00 LGA 16:22 37% 10% 0.7% 65%
UA 1617 United Flight history → ORD 15:00 LGA 18:22 37% 13% 0.7% 59%
UA 2809 United Flight history → ORD 16:00 LGA 19:22 37% 14% 0.7% 42%
WN 2803 Southwest Flight history → MDW 12:55 LGA 16:00 37% 8% 0.8% 52%
AA 1478 American Flight history → ORD 13:14 LGA 16:34 39% 9% 0.7% 63%
UA 2306 United Flight history → ORD 17:00 LGA 20:22 39% 13% 0.7% 51%
UA 2605 United Flight history → ORD 18:25 LGA 21:54 39% 13% 0.7% 54%
AA 3050 American Flight history → ORD 15:04 LGA 18:24 39% 13% 0.8% 65%
AA 2086 American Flight history → ORD 16:30 LGA 19:53 39% 11% 0.8% 50%
UA 1821 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 LGA 17:22 40% 13% 0.7% 65%
WN 4120 Southwest Flight history → MDW 19:45 LGA 23:00 41% 9% 0.7% 27%
UA 1623 United Flight history → ORD 18:00 LGA 21:25 42% 13% 0.7% 41%
WN 2804 Southwest Flight history → MDW 14:50 LGA 17:55 44% 9% 0.8% 59%
AA 1724 American Flight history → ORD 18:28 LGA 21:49 46% 13% 0.8% 49%
WN 556 Southwest Flight history → MDW 17:15 LGA 20:20 48% 10% 0.7% 30%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 10:05 JFK 13:30 27% 16% 6.2% 73%
DL 5035 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 13:00 JFK 16:37 29% 14% 11.6% 71%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record ORD 18:00 JFK 21:40 51% 22% 23.6% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON