Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4647 at 09:49 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4647 DCA 09:49 → BUF 11:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 5106 DCA 15:25 → BUF 16:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 09:49	BUF 11:18	16%	5%	0.6%	62%
MQ 4074 Envoy	DCA 16:14	BUF 17:44	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 4131 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 22:40	BUF 23:59	28%	9%	0.9%	55%
AA 5104 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 10:51	BUF 12:15	31%	10%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
OH 5075 PSA	DCA 13:04	BUF 14:29	36%	13%	0.9%	no record
AA 5106 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 15:25	BUF 16:55	40%	15%	0.9%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON