Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:22 pm at Washington); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: OH 5140 at 18:09, 46%.

Nonstops today


OH 5140 PSA	DCA 18:09	GSO 19:42	46%	18%	1.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454	1h 56m Detroit	DTW 21:11 → GSO 22:53DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor	5h 24m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	DCA 16:00 → ATL 18:06DL 360	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → GSO 22:43DL 1617	6h 43m	95%	78%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	1h 48m Charlotte	CLT 21:25 → GSO 22:24AA 4054 · flown by Envoy	4h 34m	86%	78%
American Details →	DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → GSO 21:20AA 4147 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	94%	77%
American Details →	DCA 15:57 → ORD 17:15AA 1637	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 18:40 → GSO 21:47AA 3648 · flown by Envoy	5h 50m	88%	76%
Delta Details →	DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	5h 29m	86%	71%
American Details →	DCA 17:26 → LGA 18:57AA 4685 · flown by Republic	2h 02m New York	LGA 20:59 → GSO 22:53AA 4577 · flown by Republic	5h 27m	76%	56%
American Details →	DCA 19:07 → CLT 20:49AA 3263	2h 12m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → GSO 23:57AA 2802	4h 50m	87%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DCA 19:36 → ATL 21:37DL 1007	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	4h 23m	69%	57%
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	52m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → GSO 21:20AA 4147 · flown by Envoy	3h 30m	64%	52%
American Details →	DCA 18:19 → LGA 19:49AA 4702 · flown by Republic	1h 10m New York	LGA 20:59 → GSO 22:53AA 4577 · flown by Republic	4h 34m	63%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON