Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:04 pm at Washington); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 42–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5179 PSA	DCA 15:26	MHT 17:19	42%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 5283 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 22:11	MHT 23:48	46%	10%	0.7%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 15:56 → ORD 17:15AA 1637	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → MHT 23:30AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	7h 34m	98%	83%
American Details →	DCA 17:14 → PHL 18:17AA 5248 · flown by PSA	3h 43m Philadelphia	PHL 22:00 → MHT 23:38AA 5966 · flown by Piedmont	6h 24m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	DCA 15:35 → MDW 16:45WN 4479	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 18:45 → MHT 21:55WN 4700	6h 20m	93%	67%
American Details →	DCA 15:23 → CLT 17:10AA 804	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51AA 5033 · flown by PSA	7h 28m	94%	65%
American Details →	DCA 13:30 → PHL 14:38AA 5474 · flown by PSA	2h 52m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → MHT 19:06AA 5942 · flown by Piedmont	5h 36m	92%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DCA 17:50 → CLT 19:37AA 2182	56m Charlotte	CLT 20:33 → MHT 22:51AA 5033 · flown by PSA	5h 01m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON