Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4362 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 4362 HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4362 Southwest	HOU 05:25	BWI 09:37	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3797 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:25	BWI 09:30	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	IAD 11:28	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 852 Southwest	HOU 08:05	BWI 12:02	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 604 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BWI 11:47	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2047 United Flight history →	IAH 07:46	DCA 11:56	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:41	DCA 11:39	9%	3%	0.6%	95%
AA 5247 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 06:43	DCA 10:59	10%	5%	0.9%	94%
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	11%	4%	0.7%	81%
WN 1960 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:50	BWI 15:55	12%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 1701 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:15	DCA 12:20	14%	3%	0.6%	82%
OH 5410 PSA	IAH 07:04	DCA 11:02	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	15%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	15%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	15%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	15%	6%	0.6%	75%
WN 2030 Southwest	HOU 08:05	DCA 12:00	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	16%	8%	0.6%	69%
WN 4669 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:15	BWI 22:25	16%	6%	0.6%	58%
UA 2775 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	IAD 00:31	16%	5%	0.7%	73%
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	17%	8%	0.6%	66%
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	18%	5%	0.6%	73%
OH 5252 PSA	IAH 10:44	DCA 15:01	18%	10%	0.8%	no record
WN 184 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:25	BWI 19:35	18%	6%	0.6%	27%
WN 1961 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	BWI 00:40	18%	6%	0.6%	54%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	IAH 16:55	DCA 21:06	19%	8%	0.6%	61%
WN 4888 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:55	DCA 23:55	19%	7%	0.6%	48%
AA 5526 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 10:48	DCA 15:03	19%	10%	0.8%	62%
WN 1968 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:00	DCA 18:05	23%	8%	0.6%	67%
AA 5333 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAH 17:00	DCA 21:16	23%	14%	0.9%	38%
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	41%	14%	0.9%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON