Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:23 pm at New York); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 21% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5040 at 20:30, 35%.

Nonstops today


DL 5040 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:30	HSV 22:02	35%	8%	0.4%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Huntsville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Huntsville is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	3h 36m Charlotte	CLT 22:54 → HSV 23:20AA 6051 · flown by Piedmont	7h 20m	96%	77%
American Details →	LGA 18:19 → ORD 19:58AA 3163	2h 34m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → HSV 00:21 +1AA 6426 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	94%	66%
American Details →	LGA 19:27 → CLT 21:20AA 2390	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → HSV 23:23AA 5133 · flown by PSA	4h 56m	88%	60%
American Details →	LGA 17:09 → DCA 18:41AA 4736 · flown by Republic	1h 18m Washington	DCA 19:59 → HSV 21:10AA 5557 · flown by PSA	5h 01m	76%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 17:01 → DFW 20:10AA 3103	1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → HSV 23:26AA 4278 · flown by Envoy	7h 25m	63%	52%
Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	53m Detroit	DTW 20:32 → HSV 21:28DL 5386 · flown by Endeavor	5h 28m	55%	47%
American Details →	LGA 19:25 → ORD 21:35AA 3318	57m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → HSV 00:21 +1AA 6426 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	49%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON