Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2761 at 09:11, 17%.

Safest bet today WN 2761 MCO 09:11 → MSY 10:12 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5035 MCO 18:30 → MSY 19:23 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2761 Southwest	MCO 09:11	MSY 10:12	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2668 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:35	MSY 10:25	18%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 2762 Southwest	MCO 12:00	MSY 12:53	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 964 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:30	MSY 13:20	26%	6%	0.6%	69%
F9 3553 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:57	MSY 11:51	31%	9%	1.5%	88%worse than usual
WN 2765 Southwest	MCO 22:40	MSY 23:40	37%	19%	2.2%	no record
WN 4656 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:05	MSY 22:55	39%	18%	2.1%	53%
WN 3004 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:00	MSY 14:50	40%	9%	0.6%	54%
WN 3034 Southwest	MCO 15:30	MSY 16:30	47%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 360 Southwest	MCO 17:30	MSY 18:23	51%	15%	0.8%	no record
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:05	MSY 19:13	52%	25%	2.3%	82%worse than usual
WN 5035 Southwest	MCO 18:30	MSY 19:23	53%	14%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON