Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2801 at 06:26, 5%.

Safest bet that day WN 2801 MCO 06:26 → SJU 09:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2868 MCO 16:25 → SJU 19:32 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2801 Southwest	MCO 06:26	SJU 09:24	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
B6 1233 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 05:01	SJU 07:57	7%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 2702 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:50	SJU 10:45	8%	2%	0.9%	85%
B6 2133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:05	SJU 09:03	11%	5%	0.7%	78%
B6 293 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:05	SJU 10:05	14%	5%	0.9%	93%
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:35	SJU 09:45	15%	5%	1.3%	68%
B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:10	SJU 10:13	18%	5%	0.9%	74%
WN 2802 Southwest	MCO 09:01	SJU 12:03	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 1465 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 12:10	SJU 15:05	24%	6%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 4903 Southwest	MCO 12:27	SJU 15:30	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 23:05	SJU 02:05	27%	17%	1.3%	69%
WN 3378 Southwest	MCO 13:57	SJU 17:01	28%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:10	SJU 14:11	30%	11%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	30%	18%	2.7%	77%
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:32	SJU 15:38	31%	14%	0.8%	72%
WN 2708 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:25	SJU 01:25	33%	10%	1.3%	21%
F9 2250 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:18	SJU 14:30	33%	12%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
B6 1433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:57	SJU 15:59	35%	16%	0.8%	56%
WN 1656 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 14:45	SJU 17:40	37%	8%	0.8%	63%
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:44	SJU 16:49	37%	14%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
B6 227 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:50	SJU 17:53	39%	16%	0.8%	76%worse than usual
WN 2705 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:25	SJU 19:25	44%	10%	1.3%	76%worse than usual
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:55	SJU 19:01	47%	20%	1.2%	75%worse than usual
F9 1746 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:35	SJU 21:43	51%	22%	2.1%	66%worse than usual
F9 2868 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:25	SJU 19:32	54%	19%	2.1%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON