tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at New Orleans); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 57% (calm day: 44%). Best bet: American via Phoenix, leaving 18:14, 13% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3018 Southwest Flight history → MSY 18:30 SAN 20:15 75% 22% 0.5% 43%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 9h 00m 97% 67%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:20 → LAX 19:18DL 2096 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 8h 22m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:57 → DEN 19:49UA 2216 1h 16m Denver DEN 21:05 → SAN 22:44UA 2395 6h 47m 78% 49%
UnitedDetails → MSY 15:43 → IAH 17:02UA 313 3h 01m Houston IAH 20:03 → SAN 21:24UA 2407 7h 41m 88% 44%
DeltaDetails → MSY 17:02 → ATL 19:34DL 3146 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 7h 55m 83% 40%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 7h 58m 90% 39%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 18:15 → BNA 19:45WN 4344 2h 20m Nashville BNA 22:05 → SAN 00:14 +1WN 709 7h 59m 92% 39%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 17:15 → MDW 19:30WN 2875 1h 55m Chicago MDW 21:25 → SAN 23:32WN 4285 8h 17m 86% 38%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 19:59 → DFW 21:47AA 2158 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568 6h 00m 53% 23%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → SAN 21:58AA 1160 5h 57m 43% 15%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:14 → PHX 19:29AA 2191 51m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 5h 20m 42% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON