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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 92 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1771 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–48%.

Safest bet that day UA 1771 EWR 06:35 → PBI 09:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 571 LGA 20:50 → FLL 23:59 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

UA 1771 United Flight history → EWR 06:35 PBI 09:35 5% 2% 0.8% 93%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:31 MIA 08:45 5% 2% 1.3% 95%
AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 5% 2% 1.6% 95%
AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 5% 2% 1.6% 94%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 6% 3% 0.9% 86%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 6% 3% 1.2% 89%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 FLL 10:05 7% 2% 0.7% 92%
DL 2018 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:16 PBI 10:20 7% 2% 0.9% 89%
B6 1071 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 06:00 FLL 09:00 7% 3% 0.9% 88%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 FLL 10:07 7% 2% 0.7% 88%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 8% 3% 0.7% 81%
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 MIA 10:02 8% 3% 1.0% 97%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 8% 3% 1.3% 82%
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 8% 3% 1.3% 88%
AA 2161 American JFK 06:00 MIA 08:52 8% 3% 1.6% no record
DL 2536 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:00 PBI 09:49 8% 3% 1.2% 90%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 05:50 FLL 08:50 9% 3% 1.0% 85%
UA 1135 United EWR 07:01 MIA 09:58 9% 3% 1.0% no record
B6 2701 JetBlue JFK 05:43 FLL 08:44 9% 3% 1.0% no record
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 10% 3% 0.9% 93%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 07:59 MIA 11:14 10% 3% 1.2% 86%
B6 953 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:30 PBI 09:28 10% 3% 1.0% 90%
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 10% 3% 1.0% 76%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:14 FLL 14:24 10% 3% 0.7% 80%
AA 2490 American Flight history → LGA 07:57 FLL 11:08 11% 4% 0.8% 80%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 11% 3% 0.8% 78%
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 11% 3% 1.2% 85%
UA 2018 United Flight history → EWR 09:06 PBI 12:06 11% 3% 0.7% 92%
UA 677 United Flight history → EWR 11:37 FLL 14:42 12% 5% 0.8% 84%
B6 1461 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:15 PBI 10:10 12% 3% 1.0% 88%
AA 2720 American LGA 08:04 FLL 11:05 12% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 2444 United Flight history → EWR 08:35 FLL 11:40 13% 3% 0.7% 81%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:30 FLL 10:35 13% 4% 0.8% 82%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:40 PBI 14:48 13% 4% 0.9% 83%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:55 FLL 13:54 14% 4% 0.7% 75%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:10 MIA 18:53 14% 8% 1.3% 72%
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:31 MIA 14:38 15% 6% 1.2% 81%
DL 1638 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:45 PBI 19:04 15% 8% 1.2% 74%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 15% 4% 0.9% 77%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:55 MIA 23:37 15% 8% 2.1% 70%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:30 FLL 16:40 16% 6% 0.8% 81%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 08:08 FLL 10:57 16% 6% 0.9% 80%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:30 FLL 18:54 16% 6% 0.9% 75%
UA 1797 United Flight history → EWR 13:07 PBI 16:09 16% 7% 1.0% 75%
AA 2945 American Flight history → LGA 11:00 MIA 14:11 16% 5% 1.2% 78%
AA 525 American Flight history → JFK 11:45 MIA 14:50 16% 5% 1.2% 73%
UA 1511 United Flight history → EWR 13:00 MIA 16:16 17% 7% 1.2% 68%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:20 PBI 14:15 18% 6% 1.0% 73%
AA 2981 American Flight history → EWR 12:25 MIA 15:38 19% 8% 1.3% 55%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:58 FLL 23:28 19% 6% 0.9% 68%
AA 683 American Flight history → JFK 13:59 MIA 17:16 19% 6% 1.6% 74%
AA 1479 American Flight history → JFK 16:00 MIA 19:26 19% 9% 1.8% 68%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 21% 6% 0.9% 72%
AA 1643 American Flight history → LGA 13:00 MIA 16:14 22% 6% 1.3% 67%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:59 MIA 18:30 22% 10% 1.6% 63%
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 17:25 MIA 20:59 22% 7% 1.9% 76%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:29 FLL 12:46 23% 9% 0.8% 65%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:00 FLL 15:10 23% 9% 0.9% 68%
UA 2659 United Flight history → EWR 15:25 PBI 18:27 23% 10% 1.0% 75%
UA 2650 United Flight history → EWR 20:19 PBI 23:28 23% 10% 1.0% 74%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 23% 8% 2.7% 74%
AA 2026 American Flight history → JFK 21:00 MIA 00:21 23% 9% 2.7% 59%
AA 3017 American Flight history → LGA 15:30 MIA 19:06 24% 13% 1.6% 72%
UA 2213 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 MIA 19:26 25% 13% 1.3% 62%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:21 FLL 11:11 25% 6% 0.8% 87%worse than usual
B6 2143 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 10:30 PBI 13:23 25% 6% 0.8% 73%
UA 1128 United Flight history → EWR 20:04 MIA 23:22 25% 13% 1.8% 73%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 12:00 FLL 15:03 25% 12% 0.9% 61%
B6 53 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 13:29 PBI 16:30 26% 10% 1.0% 73%
DL 2410 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 PBI 22:46 26% 14% 1.3% 63%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:55 MIA 23:22 26% 16% 2.1% 59%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:30 FLL 19:56 27% 12% 0.9% 66%
UA 1907 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 FLL 20:48 27% 11% 0.9% 82%
UA 1897 United Flight history → EWR 20:44 FLL 23:59 27% 11% 0.9% 65%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 FLL 22:52 27% 13% 0.9% 66%
DL 2460 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:10 PBI 18:32 27% 13% 1.3% 65%
B6 143 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 13:59 PBI 16:54 28% 13% 1.2% 76%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:50 MIA 21:21 30% 16% 1.8% 58%
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 16:55 MIA 20:22 30% 13% 1.6% 68%
AA 716 American Flight history → LGA 18:24 MIA 21:48 33% 14% 1.9% 48%
AA 3119 American Flight history → EWR 18:30 MIA 21:55 33% 15% 2.3% 75%
AA 1576 American Flight history → LGA 19:29 MIA 22:48 33% 14% 2.1% 50%
B6 1501 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:43 FLL 21:04 33% 14% 1.0% 64%
B6 1053 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:00 PBI 22:15 35% 13% 1.2% 64%
AA 3196 American Flight history → LGA 15:55 FLL 19:10 37% 13% 0.9% 50%
B6 1701 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:00 FLL 23:23 39% 15% 1.0% 53%
B6 305 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 20:46 FLL 23:55 39% 21% 1.3% 71%worse than usual
B6 1171 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 16:29 FLL 19:43 41% 19% 0.9% 62%
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:28 FLL 18:30 41% 19% 1.3% 42%
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 15:40 FLL 18:53 44% 18% 1.0% 61%
B6 1761 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 18:00 PBI 21:05 46% 21% 1.2% 58%
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 20:50 FLL 23:59 48% 23% 0.9% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON