tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:46 am at Philadelphia); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 23 nonstops

Today: AA 2093 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–54%.

Safest bet today AA 2093 PHL 07:00 → MCO 09:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 4173 PHL 15:33 → MCO 18:13 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time
Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
AA 2093 American Flight history → PHL 07:00 MCO 09:44 9% 4% 0.8% 98%
WN 4654 Southwest PHL 07:25 MCO 09:55 11% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 1634 American PHL 07:17 MCO 09:55 11% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 153 American PHL 07:54 MCO 10:03 14% 5% 0.8% no record
AA 2101 American Flight history → PHL 08:27 MCO 11:12 15% 5% 0.7% 87%
AA 2084 American Flight history → PHL 08:33 MCO 11:04 17% 4% 0.7% 78%
AA 2125 American Flight history → PHL 11:02 MCO 13:47 24% 7% 0.8% 55%
AA 2065 American Flight history → PHL 12:16 MCO 14:59 24% 9% 0.8% 66%
AA 3268 American Flight history → PHL 10:44 MCO 13:15 25% 6% 0.8% 78%
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history → PHL 08:10 MCO 10:52 26% 14% 1.8% 78%
AA 650 American PHL 13:03 MCO 15:42 31% 9% 1.0% no record
AA 2109 American Flight history → PHL 14:02 MCO 16:46 31% 9% 1.2% 65%
AA 1646 American PHL 14:29 MCO 17:08 31% 11% 1.2% no record
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history → PHL 10:11 MCO 12:56 36% 17% 1.9% 70%
WN 1109 Southwest PHL 14:35 MCO 17:06 38% 9% 0.7% no record
F9 4169 Frontier Flight history → PHL 12:06 MCO 14:46 42% 23% 2.2% 69%worse than usual
WN 3222 Southwest Flight history → PHL 13:50 MCO 16:20 43% 9% 0.6% 65%
AA 3262 American Flight history → PHL 15:38 MCO 18:10 45% 11% 1.4% 54%
AA 2531 American Flight history → PHL 18:05 MCO 20:54 48% 11% 2.1% 59%
AA 646 American Flight history → PHL 18:21 MCO 20:52 50% 14% 2.1% 70%worse than usual
AA 1673 American Flight history → PHL 20:06 MCO 22:38 53% 13% 2.1% 53%
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history → PHL 16:49 MCO 19:54 54% 31% 2.7% 63%worse than usual
F9 4173 Frontier Flight history → PHL 15:33 MCO 18:13 56% 32% 3.1% 65%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON