Today: AA 2781 at 09:53 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet today AA 2781 TPA 09:53 → MIA 11:06 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 2987 TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	TPA 09:53	MIA 11:06	17%	5%	0.3%	79%
AA 9801 American	TPA 11:06	MIA 12:17	17%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 2033 American	TPA 10:07	MIA 11:18	18%	7%	0.3%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	TPA 15:44	MIA 16:58	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2041 American	TPA 14:21	MIA 15:38	25%	12%	0.3%	no record
AA 2831 American Flight history →	TPA 13:54	MIA 15:03	25%	11%	0.3%	61%
MQ 4225 Envoy	TPA 20:00	MIA 21:15	30%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2130 American	TPA 19:38	MIA 20:51	33%	11%	0.6%	no record
AA 2987 American Flight history →	TPA 17:33	MIA 18:45	35%	13%	0.4%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON