Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:37, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 3% of the time.

Nonstops that day


SY 3009 Sun Country	FAI 08:51	PDX 14:08	20%	5%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27DL 1061	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 20:59 → PDX 22:00DL 3913 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	FAI 01:35 → SEA 06:16DL 2408	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → PDX 10:35DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	95%	73%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 12:15 → PDX 13:14AS 488	6h 43m	93%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27DL 1061	49m Seattle	SEA 20:16 → PDX 21:38DL 3997 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	70%	61%
Alaska Details →	FAI 08:20 → SEA 12:49AS 285	57m Seattle	SEA 13:46 → PDX 14:40AS 1700	5h 20m	63%	40%
Alaska Details →	FAI 09:57 → ANC 11:08AS 204	46m Anchorage	ANC 11:54 → PDX 16:33AS 1324	5h 36m	3%	3%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON