tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 59%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
4
Create monitor View LASFlights at LAS

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 50% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)50% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 5:00 AM PDT · 8.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 13:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 58%

    What changed: 50% → 58% since the 5:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 11:00 AM PDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 56%

    What changed: 58% → 56% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 111 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 12:00 PM PDT · 1.6 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  4. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 59%

    What changed: 56% → 59% since the 12:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 112 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 3–6 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 1:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 112 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 1:00 PM PDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.