tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Significant Resolved Delay LAS departures

Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 59%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 52% delay risk for Las Vegas departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)52% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 11:00 AM PDT · 9.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 64%

    What changed: 52% → 64% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 64% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)64% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Las Vegas departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 59%

    What changed: 64% → 59% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 70 departures scheduled from Las Vegas 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetLAS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)59% over 70 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 5:00 PM PDT · 2.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-24 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.