tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 2 minFAA NAS status <1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning <1 minWeather observations 3 minFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 5 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 73%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 51% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 51% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 7:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)51% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 7:00 AM CDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 13:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%

    What changed: 51% → 63% since the 7:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 73%

    What changed: 63% → 73% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 39 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Friday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)73% over 39 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.