tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 225 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 225 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 3 minFAA flight data 3 min

FAA NAS status is stale (225 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (225 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 61% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 36 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 66%

    What changed: 61% → 66% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 36 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 66% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 39%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)66% over 36 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 20:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.