Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 58%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 5
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 50% delay risk for St Louis departures 6–9 PM Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 50% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 12:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 17:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 59%
What changed: 50% → 59% since the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 59% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM CDT · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%
What changed: 59% → 57% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM CDT · 2.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 58%
What changed: 57% → 58% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 58%
What changed: 58% → 58% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 31 departures scheduled from St Louis 6–9 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 58% over 31 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 5:00 PM CDT · 0.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 22:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.