Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 4
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 57% delay risk for St Louis departures 9 PM–midnight Friday
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 57% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 1:00 PM CDT · 7.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%
What changed: 57% → 62% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 2:00 PM CDT · 5.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 60%
What changed: 62% → 60% since the 2:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM CDT · 5.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 20:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises St Louis departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 62%
What changed: 60% → 62% since the 3:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from St Louis 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target STL departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-23 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 62% over 16 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Oct 23, 4:00 PM CDT · 4.1 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Fri Oct 23, 9:00 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.