tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 74 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 5 minFAA flight data 7 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Major Resolved Delay SNA departures

Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View SNAFlights at SNA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Orange County departures 3–6 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)54% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 11:00 AM PDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?
  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 3–6 PM Friday to 61%

    What changed: 54% → 61% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 26 departures scheduled from Orange County 3–6 PM Friday an average 61% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 3–6 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)61% over 26 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT · 0.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?

Closed Fri Oct 23, 3:00 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.