tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 222 h staleForecast cycle 76 minLightning 222 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 9 min

FAA NAS status is stale (222 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (222 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay SNA departures

Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
Create monitor View SNAFlights at SNA

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Orange County departures 6–9 PM Friday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)49% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 11:00 AM PDT · 6.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 63%

    What changed: 49% → 63% since the 11:00 AM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)63% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 2:00 PM PDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 21:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Orange County departure delay risk 6–9 PM Friday to 57%

    What changed: 63% → 57% since the 2:00 PM PDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Orange County 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 34%. From the 4:00 PM PDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetSNA departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-23 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)57% over 29 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonFri Oct 23, 4:00 PM PDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-23 23:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Fri Oct 23, 6:01 PM PDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.