tailodds FORECAST
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 226 h staleForecast cycle 1 hLightning 226 h staleWeather observations no data staleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min

FAA NAS status is stale (226 h old). No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.

Lightning is stale (226 h old). Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.

Weather observations is stale. Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.

Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 22%, near normal

Current state
Resolved at 4:57 AM CDT
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 46% delay risk for Midway departures 9 AM–noon Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Monday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)46% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 3:00 AM CDT · 5.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 08:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Resolution Forecast

    Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 AM–noon Monday to 22%, near normal

    What changed: 46% → 22%; calm-weather level 13%

    Tailodds’ model gives the 47 departures scheduled from Midway 9 AM–noon Monday an average 22% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 4:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 AM–noon 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)22% over 47 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 4:00 AM CDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 09:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
    Was this useful?