Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 29%, near normal
- Current state
- Resolved at 4:57 AM CDT
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 49% delay risk for Midway departures noon–3 PM Monday
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Monday an average 49% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 3:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 49% over 42 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 3:00 AM CDT · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-26 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Resolution Forecast
Model lowers Midway departure delay risk noon–3 PM Monday to 29%, near normal
What changed: 49% → 29%; calm-weather level 19%
Tailodds’ model gives the 42 departures scheduled from Midway noon–3 PM Monday an average 29% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 19%. From the 4:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target MDW departures noon–3 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 29% over 42 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Oct 26, 4:00 AM CDT · 7.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-10-26 09:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?