tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 2 minForecast cycle 78 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 4 min
Forecast Significant Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
3
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 47% delay risk for Midway departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 11:00 AM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)47% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 11:00 AM CDT · 9.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 16:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 58%

    What changed: 47% → 58% since the 11:00 AM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)58% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 4:00 PM CDT · 4.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  3. De-escalation Forecast

    Model lowers Midway departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 56%

    What changed: 58% → 56% since the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Midway 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 32%. From the 5:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 33 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 5:00 PM CDT · 3.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 22:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.