tailodds FORECAST
Live · checked FAA national advisories 3 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 78 minLightning 2 minWeather observations 4 minFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 3 min
Forecast Major Resolved Delay MDW departures

Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 56%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
Create monitor View MDWFlights at MDW

Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 42% delay risk for Midway departures 6–9 PM Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 42% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)42% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 1:00 PM CDT · 4.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 18:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Midway departure delay risk 6–9 PM Monday to 56%

    What changed: 42% → 56% since the 1:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 41 departures scheduled from Midway 6–9 PM Monday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 4:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetMDW departures 6–9 PM 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)56% over 41 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 4:00 PM CDT · 1.0 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 21:57 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 26, 6:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.