tailodds FORECAST
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Forecast Major Resolved Delay AUS departures

Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 55%

Current state
Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
Started
Latest activity
Updates
2
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.

Updates oldest first

  1. Initial Forecast

    Model forecasts 44% delay risk for Austin departures 9 PM–midnight Monday

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 44% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)44% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 12:00 PM CDT · 8.1 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-26 17:56 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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  2. Escalation Forecast

    Model raises Austin departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Monday to 55%

    What changed: 44% → 55% since the 12:00 PM CDT forecast (same model, same window)

    Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 29%. From the 7:00 PM CDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

    Evidence for this update
    TargetAUS departures 9 PM–midnight 2026-10-26 (15+ min late)
    Probability (calibrated, mean per flight)55% over 17 flights
    Forecast cycle · horizonMon Oct 26, 7:00 PM CDT · 0.5 h ahead
    Model versionfamB-sd-v4i
    Source event time
    Ingested
    Published here (2026-10-27 01:27 UTC)
    SourcesTailodds forecast
    Provenanceforecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1
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Closed Mon Oct 26, 9:01 PM CDT: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.