Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 1 hLightning 1 minWeather observations 5 minFAA surface data 7 minFAA flight data 6 min
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 50% → 62% since the 6:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 20 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Saturday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 23%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 9.6 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 60% → 70% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 13 of the 45 departures scheduled 3–6 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 16 of the 56 departures scheduled noon–3 PM Saturday to be cancelled (29%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 10 of the 33 departures scheduled 9 AM–noon Saturday to be cancelled (30%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
What changed: 44% → 59% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 59% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 12%. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: about 3 → 5 expected cancellations since the 3:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 56 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 44 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Saturday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 9.0 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Austin 9 AM–noon Saturday an average 30% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 13%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 AM Saturday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 8%. From the 12:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 45 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Friday to be cancelled (13%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Tailodds’ model gives the 15 departures scheduled from Austin 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 84% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 41%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
What changed: 67% → 88% since the 1:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 49 departures scheduled from Austin 6–9 PM Friday an average 88% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 35%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: 49% → 65% since the 7:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 65 departures scheduled from Austin 3–6 PM Friday an average 65% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 40%. From the 1:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 19 departures that took off between 12:50 PM and 1:50 PM CST, 14 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 27% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 68 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Friday an average 36% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 30%. From the 11:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 15 departures that took off between 10:45 AM and 11:45 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 19% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:45 AM–11:45 AM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 7%Typical 19%
Of 19 departures that took off between 4:34 PM and 5:34 PM CST, 13 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 38% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 12 departures that took off between 8:29 AM and 9:29 AM CST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. Austin typically sees 12% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 22% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 8:29 AM–9:29 AM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 8%Typical 12%
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Observed
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Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?