Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
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Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (27%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 6:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.4 over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 6:00 AM CST · 10.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 13:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 8 among Austin departures 6–9 PM Saturday
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 6:00 AM CST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 20 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Saturday to be cancelled (38%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~7.6 over 20 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 9.6 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?