Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 70%
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Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
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Initial Forecast
Model forecasts 41% delay risk for Austin departures noon–3 PM Saturday
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 1:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 1:00 AM CST · 9.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:27 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 55%
What changed: 41% → 55% since the 1:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 55% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 2:00 AM CST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 08:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Updated model puts Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday at 41%
What changed: 55% → 41% since the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model changed)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 41% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 41% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 3:00 AM CST · 8.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 09:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 60%
What changed: 41% → 60% since the 3:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 5:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 60% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 5:00 AM CST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 11:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises Austin departure delay risk noon–3 PM Saturday to 70%
What changed: 60% → 70% since the 5:00 AM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 56 departures scheduled from Austin noon–3 PM Saturday an average 70% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 7:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Evidence for this update
Target AUS departures noon–3 PM 2026-11-14 (15+ min late) Probability (calibrated, mean per flight) 70% over 56 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sat Nov 14, 7:00 AM CST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 14:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?